Space Race 2: The Return Of The Space Race

By John Oncea, Editor

Space has become a critical part of modern life and economy, with satellites increasingly necessary for vital functions such as military operations and intelligence gathering. The role of space in government and commercial activities is expected to grow significantly in the years ahead. This has led to a new space race, with China and the United States competing for economic and technological dominance, as well as the ability to shape the rules of space governance.

The U.S. made its first foray into space exploration in 1840 when John William Draper took the first clear telescopic photograph of another world: the Moon. Russia entered 15 years later when Konstantin Tsiolkovsky first proposed the space elevator.

Since 1900, the two countries (Russia becoming the USSR and then becoming Russia again) dominated space exploration. Why, the two countries even participated in the first Space Race, starting with the U.S. announcement on July 29, 1955, that they intended to launch an artificial satellite and ending nearly 35 years later when Russia launched Mir, the first consistently inhabited long-term research space station on February 11, 1990.

Then, on December 31, 1991, the United Nations accepted the dissolution of the USSR putting an end to the Space Race once and for all, right? Ummm, kind of?

Many, many missions performed by more and more countries advanced space exploration between the end of the USSR and today, but it was done for the most part as a community of nations. Then, on January 3, 2019, China officially entered space exploration with the first soft landing on the Moon’s far side and the first germination of seeds on another celestial body.

With that, the second Space Race was launched with the only things at stake being economic and national security. Oh, one more thing: China is currently taking the lead.

#SquadGoals

“This present-day Space Race — driven not such much by the wonderment of exploration as that of the necessity of domination — needs the undivided time and attention it deserves,” wrote my colleague Abby Proch in the article linked above. In the eight months since Abby wrote that, much has happened.

The U.S. successfully launched Artemis 1, the first in a series of increasingly complex missions that will enable human exploration to the Moon and Mars. Then, in early April, NASA and the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) announced the four astronauts who will venture around the Moon on Artemis II. After Artemis 2, Artemis 3, scheduled to launch in December 2025, will involve a crewed lunar landing, the first in five decades since Apollo 17, and assuming the success of these missions the U.S. will be back on the Moon.

While the U.S. is aiming to get to the Moon by 2025, China’s focus is to achieve military and economic space dominance as soon as 2030, according to State of the Space Industrial Base, a summary report jointly released by The Defense Innovation Unit, the United States Space Force, and the Air Force Research Laboratory.

So, how’s that going? So far, so good. China’s space program conducts the highest or second-highest number of orbital launches every year, sending ballistic missiles, artificial satellites, and crewed spaceflight into space.

The China National Space Administration has other long-term goals as well, including improving its standing in the world of space science, crewed Moon missions that ultimately result in a crewed lunar base, and ultimately exploiting the Earth-Moon space for industrial development.

“China has shown quick advancement in space technology over the past year. One of the most prominent achievements was the launching of a new space station,” writes The Week. “’It's entirely possible they could catch up and surpass us, absolutely,’ remarked Space Force Lt. Gen. Nina Armagno. ‘The progress they've made has been stunning — stunningly fast.’”

A big part of China’s “stunning” progress is the emphasis Chinese President Xi Jinping places on winning the second Space Race. According to Georgetown Journal of International Affairs (GJIA), given Jinping’s “repeated emphasis on the role that space power plays for China’s national rejuvenation, China has placed a priority on developing its space technology as critical ‘new infrastructure.’”

Why Winning Matters

“Should China come out ahead in the second Space Race, the China-led space order would significantly constrict democratic values as well as the extent to which other nations have access to space,” GJIA notes. “If the United States wants to fight for democracy and combat the rise of authoritarian regimes in space, it must recognize that the second Space Race no longer focuses on technological demonstration and arms control but instead centers around nations’ aspirations to reap the economic benefits of establishing a permanent presence in space. Ultimately, the United States must develop a policy vision of inclusive space development, as failure to do so would enable an authoritarian space regime with little tolerance for diverse voices.”

While the U.S. has several allies, China, as well as Russia, aren’t among them, having “so far rebuffed the U.S.-led Artemis Accords, a cooperation framework for the civil exploration of the moon, Mars, and other astronomical bodies,” according to Newsweek. In fact, without congressional approval, NASA is prohibited from cooperating with China’s space program because of the Wolf Amendment of 2011.

Short of the two space superpowers cooperating and settling for a tie, there has to be a winner. According to The Hill, that won’t be determined by who gets to the Moon first. Rather, “Two metrics exist to determine who wins the new space race. The first is which side gets to make the rules for operating in space. The second is which side demonstrates the greater ability to economically develop space, starting with the Moon.”

The Hill asserts the U.S. is currently ahead on both counts, first by having established the previously mentioned Artemis Accords, a non-controversial set of rules that mandate cooperation and noninterference, based on legal precedent. Second, “NASA and its partners also lead in the economic development of space. Everyone knows about billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk and how his commercial space company SpaceX has lowered the cost of spaceflight by orders of magnitude. Other space launch startups include Blue Origin, Relativity Space, and Rocket Lab. America is going back to the moon partly because of these new commercial partners.”

It is an undeniable fact that space has become an indispensable element of the modern world and economy. In particular, the use of satellites has become increasingly important for intelligence gathering and military operations, which are becoming more crucial in a world that is shifting toward a multipolar balance of power. Furthermore, the role of satellites in core government functions is expected to grow significantly, indicating that global affairs will be played out in orbit. This trend is further reinforced by the burgeoning commercial interest in space, which is likely to lead to a surge in satellite activity. Overall, it is evident that the night sky is poised to become even more eventful in the years to come.