Multiple Chip Architectures Pursue The $14B Small Cell Market, Says NPD In-Stat

Mobile data usage nearly doubles each year, but mobile operators cannot increase expenditures at that rate. At the same time, data rates (a key metric of perceived quality) are affected by the proximity of a device to a cell. These two realities make the use of small cells necessary creating a battleground as multiple chip architectures are in pursuit of the small cell market For SoC vendors, the battle is worth waging. New NPD In-Stat research forecasts that there will be 160.3 million active small cells, and the retail value of small cell shipments will reach $14B by 2015.

"Small cells cover areas where macrocells would be overkill and are essential to the success of heterogeneous networking (HetNet), the term used to describe modern cellular infrastructure architecture," says Chris Kissel, Senior Analyst. "HetNet is the practice of integrating small cells, distributed antenna systems (DAS), and Wi-Fi with existing cellular infrastructure to create the best environment for signaling integrity, optimal uplink and downlink capacities, and low latencies."

Small cells include femtocells that serve as few as 4 users and have an effective range of 15-50 meters (typically used in residences and small enterprises); picocells, used to provide coverage indoors and outdoors for up to 100 users; and microcells, used to support as many as 1,000 users and have an effective range of 2-3 kilometers.

Currently, there are five approaches being used to power small cells, built around different SoC platforms:

• MIPS cores are being used in residential femtocells, like those made by Broadcom and Cavium.
• SoC vendors are adapting existing mobile processors to meet the needs of femtocells. Qualcomm's Femtocell Station Modem (FSM) is based on its Snapdragon platform, while Intel, in partnership with Ubiquisys, is developing Edge Cloud local cache processing using Atom cores.
• ARM processors are also being used by several SoC providers: DesignArt, Mindspeed, Picochip (acquired by Mindspeed), and Texas Instruments are using ARM processors in combination with DSPs in their chipset designs.
• x86 processors have had limited use in microcells and could become important in picocells. As HSPA and LTE platforms evolve into LTE-Advanced, greater computational power will be needed to process packets and signals over larger spectrum channels, which could be an opening for this architecture.
• IBM's Power Architecture is an emerging platform in the small cell market; Freescale has been the most vocal proponent.

Naturally, it will not be the SoC vendors that ultimately determine who wins in the small cell silicon market. Mobile operators and MSOs will select products based on price, performance, and compatibility. The real wizardry will come from SoC suppliers trying to convince device manufacturers that their platforms are best.

New NPD In-Stat research, Femtocells and Small Cells: Making the Most of Megahertz(#IN1104896GW), provides a comprehensive review of which small cells serve best in a variety of coverage scenarios and includes five-year forecasts and analyses of shipment numbers, installed base, and the value of equipment in small cells. Breakouts and profiles are provided:

• Forecasts by region, airlink, and mode
• Forecasts by device type: femtocell, enterprise femtocell, indoor picocell, outdoor metro picocell, and microcell
• Current small cell deployments categorized by region and small cell type
• A silicon BOM for Class1 femtocells for the years 2009-2015
• Profiles of the leading device manufacturers, chipset providers, and other ecosystem providers in small cells including AirHop Communications, Airspan, Airvana, AirWalk Communications, Alcatel-Lucent, BelAir Networks, Broadcom, Cavium, Cisco, Cognovo, CommScope, Contela, DesignArt, Ericsson, Freescale, Huawei, Intel, ip.access, Juni, Mindspeed, NEC, Nokia Siemens Networks, Picochip, Powerwave, Qualcomm, Taqua, Samsung, Texas Instruments, Ubiquisys, Wazco, and ZTE.

About NPD In-Stat
NPD In-Stat's market intelligence combines technical, market and end-user research and database models to analyze the Mobile Internet and Digital Entertainment ecosystems. Insights are derived from a deep understanding of technology impacts, nearly 30 years of history in research and consulting, and direct relationships with leading players in each of our core markets. NPD In-Stat provides its research through reports, annual subscriptions, consulting and advisory services to inform critical decisions. Technology vendors, equipment manufacturers, service providers and media companies worldwide rely on NPD In-Stat to support critical business, product and technology decisions. For more information, visit www.in-stat.com.

About The NPD Group, Inc.
The NPD Group is the leading provider of reliable and comprehensive consumer and retail information for a wide range of industries. Today, more than 1,800 manufacturers, retailers, and service companies rely on NPD to help them drive critical business decisions at the global, national, and local market levels. NPD helps our clients to identify new business opportunities and guide product development, marketing, sales, merchandising, and other functions. Information is available for the following industry sectors: automotive, beauty, commercial technology, consumer technology, entertainment, fashion, food and beverage, foodservice, home, office supplies, software, sports, toys, and wireless. For more information, visit www.npd.com.

SOURCE: NPD In-Stat