News | February 2, 2010

4G LTE Gated By 3G Success, Not WiMAX

Long term evolution (LTE), the next-generation mobile broadband standard, is the clear choice for the next leap in wireless technology, reports In-Stat (http://email.in-stat.com/cgi-bin4/DM/y/hBW8s0Ro2ec0K560DHgc0E1). While WiMax appeared to be a competitor for 4G early on, that battle is now largely resolved. LTE's deployment will primarily be impeded by the success of 3G networks and HSPA and HSPA+ networks as mobile operators seek to leverage their installed infrastructure.

"LTE still has several glaring issues," says Allen Nogee, In-Stat analyst. "These include lack of spectrum, signal-to-noise ratio, and non-established patent and royalty pool. It's clear that the shift toward 4G LTE will be gradual and protracted."

Recent research by In-Stat found the following:

  • LTE deployments will effectively begin in 2010. North America and Asia/Pacific will be the first regions to deploy.
  • While LTE will ultimately become the 4G standard of choice, Mobile Wi-Max is much more mature in deployment and has a distinct niche. Even by 2013, Mobile Wi-Max will have more than 5 times as many global subscribers as LTE.
  • External clients, such as dongles, network cards, and USB dongles will be the first LTE subscriber devices sold. LTE mobile handsets will not start shipping in major volumes until 2H12.
  • WiMAX deployments have given chipset manufacturers, device manufacturers, and infrastructure suppliers real-world experience.

The research, "The Road to LTE: Is WiMAX Really the Enemy?" (#IN1004525WBB), covers the worldwide market for 4G wireless technology. It includes:

  • Examination of the evolution of 3G to 4G wireless technology.
  • LTE deployment plans by major operators and by region.
  • Cellular and mobile LTE subscription forecasts through 2013.
  • Forecasts of LTE external clients device and PC shipments through 2013.

This research is part of In-Stat's Wireless Broadband Evolution service, which provides end-to-end coverage of the technologies and strategies for the development and deployment of future wireless technologies, such as HSPA, LTE, WiMAX and Enhanced Wireless DSL. The coverage includes the infrastructure, devices, services, and subscribers for wireless broadband.

About In-Stat
In-Stat's market intelligence combines technical, market and end-user research and database models to analyze the Mobile Internet and Digital Entertainment ecosystems. Our insights are derived from a deep understanding of technology impacts, nearly 30 years of history in research and consulting, and direct relationships with leading players in each of our core markets. In-Stat provides its research through reports, annual subscriptions, consulting and advisory services to inform critical decisions. Technology and semiconductor vendors, infrastructure and device manufacturers, service providers and media companies worldwide rely on partnerships with In-Stat's tenured, experienced staff and on our in-depth market intelligence to support critical business, product and technology decisions.

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SOURCE: In-Stat